The monthly Android version battle

Introduction

For my work at spriteCloud I started collecting data about the different Android versions. For me it is just fun to see how new versions come and go, but for testing purposes this is valuable data since you can sort of predict what version will become the next big thing so this will give you focus.

Testing on all available devices or versions is on some projects just not an option. If test automation is not in place you will lack in human resources, but even if this in place a project can also lack in financial resources. In that case it's wise to combine these free published statistics together with the website/app statistics in order to figure out what Android version should get priority.

Show me the numbers

Below you will find a ranking of the current statistics that I've collected and compared those to the previous month. After that I'll talk a bit about each version and the couse it will probably take. The prediction is based upon previous collected statistics.

Android versions in order of current market share
  1. (-) Android 4.1 with 29% (-4,5%)
  2. (-) Android 4.2 with 19,1% (+0,3%)
  3. (-) Android 2.3 with 14,9% (-1,3%)
  4. (+2) Android 4.4 with 13,6% (+5,1%)
  5. (-1) Android 4.0 with 12,3% (-0,9%)
  6. (-1) Android 4.3 with 10,3% (+1,8%) 
  7. (-) Android 2.2 with 0,8%  (-0,2%)
Android code names in order of current market share
  1. (-) Jelly Bean with 58,4% (-2,4%)
  2. (-) Gingerbread with 14,9% (-1,3%)
  3. (+1) KitKat with 13,6% (+5,1%)
  4. (-1) Ice Cream Sandwich with 12,3% (-1,1%)
  5. (-) Froyo with 0,8% (-0,2%)

Estimates and predictions

  • Android 2.2 is kind of obsolete, Just like Android 3 which has less than 0,1% market share.
  • Android 2.3 and 4.0 will continue to decrease in a steady pace as they are doing for months. There are almost no Android devices being sold with this version anymore. My prediction is that both will continue to decrease with +- 1% each month
  • Android 4.1 might drop quickly for the next couple of months and then join the steady decrease that we also see for Android 2.3 and 4.0. This version still has such a big market share that it will remain a important version for at least half a year and maybe even a year.
  • Android 4.2 and 4.3. These versions will still be sold with low(er) budget phones and tablets, which will probably result in a small increase or decrease over the next few months. It will probably not gain more then 3-5% more market share than there is right now. Also phones like Samsung Galaxy S4 and S5 and Ascend P6 will get upgrades to Android 4.4 so the percentages will drop when these will roll-out
  • Android 4.4 will catch up to 3rd place next month and maybe even 2nd place within 2 months. This will become the next Android version that will eventually reach more then 60% market share.

Android 4.4 - the next BIG(gest) Android version

This version of Android is the first one that has more than 10% market share with no follow up version (yet). It is also said that Android 4.4 runs well on slower devices. Meaning Google really wants this version to become the next big thing. Therefore I think that it will get to the 40% faster then Android 2.3 and 4.1 did and maybe can even surpass the success of Android 2.3 in terms of market share (which was once over 60% which is also the reason why this version is at this moment still in 3rd place). If we just look at the code names (Android 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3 combined a.k.a. Jelly Bean), all code names degrease in total market share and only KitKat is increasing at this moment for the third month in a row. My prediction is that KitKat will get to 60% market share within 5-6 months and might have the potential to get to the 75-80% market share depending on when the next version will pop-up and catch on.

Sources:
https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html
http://www.android.gs/android-4-4-3-update-for-samsung-galaxy-s5-to-arrive-this-month-galaxy-s4-getting-it-in-july/
http://cn.club.vmall.com/thread-781190-1-3.html
http://www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/mobile-phones/android-5-0-key-lime-pie-release-date-news-and-rumours-1091500

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